Fresh off of the bye week, the brutal 2009 schedule continues for the Rams (1-7), as they host the red-hot New Orleans Saints (8-0) Sunday at 12 CST.  The Saints are battle tested, and Drew Brees is having a monster year.  Their three headed rushing attack of Mike Bell, Pierre Thomas, and Reggie Bush keeps a back fresh for most of the game, allowing them to pound defenses.  Devery Henderson is a burner at WR, and Marques Colston continues to be the real deal at WR.  Darren Sharper leads a turnover producing defense.

The Rams are coming off of their first win in over a calender year over the Lions, and got that win due to the heart of the team, Steven Jackson.  He’s been THE offense (check out my midseason report card for more explanation) and scored his first touchdown of the season as the game winning score 2 weeks ago.  On paper, this should be a breeze for Brees & Co.,  but there are a few things to look for as keys to keeping things competitive or even winning at home.

SCORE! – The Rams average less than 10 points a game.  The Saints score that in a quarter.  They will score often again at the Ed on Sunday, but keep in mind the Saints D is banged up.  And can be ran on, Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams both had great games against the Saints back to back weeks.  If they can be ran on, then the strategy is clear…

Steven Jackson needs 40 touches to win – yeah, 40 touches.  30 runs and 10 receptions, 35 runs, 40 runs, 20 and 20, I don’t care how it happens, SJ needs the 40 touch range for the Rams to have a shot.  He’s the only offensive weapon we’ve got, and he happens to be the weapon that can neutralize the Saints – an effective ground game.  It’s literally the only offensive chance we’ve got, as with Sharper making picks left and right I’d rather have Bulger do checkdowns and short throws.  But SJ has to get a billion touches to keep the clock rolling (which keeps that explosive offense off the field) and to keep the chains moving and score some points.

O.J. Atogwe, Channel Your Inner Darren Sharper – I picked on O.J. in my midseason report because he came into this season a turnover generating machine.  The machine’s gears must not be working, because he really hasn’t done much at all this season.  For the Rams to have a chance (and this simulation explains it), they must cause turnovers.  And the key to the Rams’ turnovers is Atogwe, point blank.  I think he’ll get chances to make a few plays because of the Saints’ affinity to the pass, but he, and the Rams secondary as a whole, must get charged up and take advantage of those opportunities.  Otherwise, the game will be over by the end of the half.

Hit Drew Brees – In case you didn’t know, Brees is the best QB in the NFL not named Manning or Brady, and could very well be the best QB this season.  The strategy for these guys is simple but extremely difficult to perform: knock the holy hell out of the QB the whole game.  The Chargers started doing that to Manning and started beating him.  The Giants did it to Brady in the Super Bowl.  And if the Rams do it here, they’ll make the biggest upset since the Patriots beat the Rams in the Super Bowl (I still believe that one was rigged!).

Final Thoughts – The Rams have been stuck with a brutal schedule.  For the 1st time in NFL history, the Rams first three home games are against undefeated teams (Vikings, Colts, Saints).  It’s pretty hard to predict a Rams victory, but the simulation tells you exactly what has to go on.  Turnovers, turnovers, turnovers.  They hung with the Colts until the back-breaking 4th quarter, but this Rams team has a lot of fight.  Don’t be shocked if it’s closer than people expect.

My Prediction - Screw being realistic, I want a Rams home victory!